Stock market thread

[peskypesky]

Don't know about you guys, but I watch daily.

After an amazingly quick rebound from the March lows, the market is experiencing a bit of a correction.

[aullucci]

It's a nausea inducing roller coaster right now. I am far enough off from retirement and the kids college that I don't have to watch every day. Thank goodness...

[OMB]

Just remember what goes down must come back up...eventually.

[thepezident]

Got caught holding the bag with RCL and MRO...
I'm up on OVV though....

And we're talking about $15k invested...

[mighty_duck]

Just remember what goes down must come back up...eventually.

In that case do you want to buy some of my TWA or Washington Mutual stocks?

[golem]

I'm watching a bit more often than usual as I'm looking for a good chance to fund my Roth fully for the year. I'm a strict index funds kind of buyer for the most part.

[bleys21]

I'm always watching too. I'm mainly invested in stuff that produces dividends, and then I reinvest those into either the same stocks or new things that catch my eye. But its been a wild ride this year, many of the stable dividend producers are cutting or eliminating their dividends until things get better, but Realty Corp (O) still rules supreme, kicking out 5% a year, with monthly payments since 1969, plus 91 consecutive quarterly dividend increases. Insane. Granted, its more for long term growth and stability, but I'm amazed at any company that can produce a monthly dividend every month since they started.

I'm thinking there will be another correction once the 2nd quarter reports start to arrive, and then it will be buying time again

[Perfect Stranger]

I play about with it 3 or 4 hours a day. Shuffling here, shuffling there. Gives me something to do other than play guitar. So far my worst daily loss was only about $800 so I've been lucky I guess. I did squirrel some away in stocks that pay dividends.....just to fund my play time. It's pretty interesting reading the Asian markets early in the morning and The Motley Fool. But they don't don't seem to do much better than I do. The Asians markets usually at least tell how the day is going to go. It's kinda weird owning SOME of these stocks after being a hippie all my life....LOL

At this very moment I have 2 up and 2 down a little, so I guess it's a wash at the moment. But things seem to heat up after lunch....

[Perfect Stranger]

Does anyone have any Hot Tips, Sure Things, Favorites, Past Successes to pass along? Of course, you can lie...but hopefully anyone into the market will do due diligence before investing.

I'll Start...

BUD = Great steady income with a really decent dividend

NVAX = Hot new Therapeutic stock with a good start on Co-19 vaccine

STAG = Another steady income with a decent enough dividend

PRU = A super steady income with a super dividend

ROKU = Hot tip! Rumors swirling about Goolgle buying Roku, and they certainly have the excess cash. If Google doesn't buy them, some smart entity will!

[peskypesky]

Market is down. I need it to go down a bit more to buy back in. I feel bad hoping it goes down, as that's very selfish....but you know....gotta look out for #1.

[bleys21]

I'm with you there, kinda waiting for another big drop. I'm feeling like once the 2nd quarter reports start rolling in, and these companies start showing how much money they lost due to the virus shutdown, a big drop is going to hit again. I'm saving up some money to make a few moves if that happens...

Market is down. I need it to go down a bit more to buy back in. I feel bad hoping it goes down, as that's very selfish....but you know....gotta look out for #1.

[uwmcscott]

As part of my layoff i'm getting a pretty decent lump sum for accrued vacation/leave and have the option of putting it into a pre-tax 403b plan ( like a 401K but for gov't folks ) with a choice of several fund companies ( T.Rowe Price, TIAA-Cref and Fidelity ). The one caveat is that I cannot continue contributions to the plan if I am not employed by the state, but I can actively manage it and could start contributing again if ever came back. I'd also have to make the contribution all at once on August 1 on my last paycheck so i'd be at the mercy of the market, but of course realizing the tax savings.

Anyone here have any experience with such an animal?

[LightWingStudios]

Just remember what goes down must come back up...eventually.

That's what they said in 1929.

[Tonray's Ghost]

As part of my layoff i'm getting a pretty decent lump sum for accrued vacation/leave and have the option of putting it into a pre-tax 403b plan ( like a 401K but for gov't folks ) with a choice of several fund companies ( T.Rowe Price, TIAA-Cref and Fidelity ). The one caveat is that I cannot continue contributions to the plan if I am not employed by the state, but I can actively manage it and could start contributing again if ever came back. I'd also have to make the contribution all at once on August 1 on my last paycheck so i'd be at the mercy of the market, but of course realizing the tax savings.

Anyone here have any experience with such an animal?

You don't have to use equity funds for 100% if you are worried about market risk. You can choose among a menu of funds provided within the plan...some money market, some fixed income (bonds) and some equity (stocks).

[uwmcscott]

You don't have to use equity funds for 100% if you are worried about market risk. You can choose among a menu of funds provided within the plan...some money market, some fixed income (bonds) and some equity (stocks).

Yes, I saw there is quite an array of funds for each provider. By default you get put into a "target retirment date" fund based on your age, but once you are in you can move it wherever you want. I should have set one of these up many years ago, but we were a single income family for quite a while and enough came out of my check for the regular/mandatory retirment fund that I didn't have much left for anything else.

I also considered just taking part of the payout and paying down a vehicle loan, but the rate is so low there it probably doesn't match the savings of the pre-tax nor the interest long term.

[golem]

[mention]uwmcscott[/mention] I put almost everything in my 401K/403Bs in low-cost index fund the S&P500. Target date funds are usually what I'd recommend to most people who want less risk, but bonds have had low yields since I started investing (and they're at all-time lows now), so I prefer to just put everything in the S&P500. It's riskier, but I haven't had problems with my approach yet even with the massive drop early this year. Anything under 0.05% costs for an S&P500 fund is usually decent. Researching on your own is the best.

Mostly I follow a Boggleheads approach, but they'd suggest more diversification than I engage in.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

p.s. Definitely don't invest everything in a market fund like I do unless you are willing to watch the value of your retirement funds experience swings with the market. For example, the massive swings we've experienced this year. Honestly, I expect to see a lot of volatility in the market until we get better at managing COVID.

[Tonray's Ghost]

@uwmcscott I put almost everything in my 401K/403Bs in low-cost index fund the S&P500. Target date funds are usually what I'd recommend to most people who want less risk, but bonds have had low yields since I started investing (and they're at all-time lows now), so I prefer to just put everything in the S&P500. It's riskier, but I haven't had problems with my approach yet even with the massive drop early this year. Anything under 0.05% costs for an S&P500 fund is usually decent. Researching on your own is the best.

Mostly I follow a Boggleheads approach, but they'd suggest more diversification than I engage in.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

p.s. Definitely don't invest everything in a market fund like I do unless you are willing to watch the value of your retirement funds experience swings with the market. For example, the massive swings we've experienced this year. Honestly, I expect to see a lot of volatility in the market until we get better at managing COVID.

And let me add that your investing choices should NEVER be determined by what you believe is market behavior going forward. That is a quantitative approach based upon the market determining your decisions. You should ALWAYS take a qualitative approach basing your decisions on your life's goals, time to retirement, needs for current cash (1 to 3 years out), etc.

[peskypesky]

yeah, after trying a lot of different things with my 401k investment choices, I settled on index funds, and mostly S&P500 index. Total market or extended market indexes also (if available).

I recommend the Boglehead forum as a resource for anyone who wants to learn about investing. Those people are very knowledgeable.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

[uwmcscott]

And they said we were just a guitar forum...

This is all good advice and i'll definitely check out the bogleheads site. I've worked for the state university system for 20 years so the bulk of my "investing" has been towards the state employee pension fund - which is a mandatory percentage of your paycheck into a fixed trust fund, not something I have much control over. Having said that at least I get to take it with me as i'm vested, but you can't roll it over or anything of the sort - just start withdrawing once you reach a minimum age which is several years down the road for me.

I also have a few assorted Roth IRA's in Vanguard Index funds, a couple CD's and even some money market mixed in. It's hard enough deciding which guitar to buy - all this other "grown up" stuff just gets you down sometimes

[Open G]

What do you think of this graph? The New Cases Daily graph is increasing, but the New Deaths Daily graph is about unchanged. Has COVID become less lethal?

COVID.jpg

[Tiga]

What do you think of this graph? The New Cases Daily graph is increasing, but the New Deaths Daily graph is about unchanged. Has COVID become less lethal?

COVID.jpg

I think the younger people are getting it now. Older and other vulnerable groups protecting themselves more.

[tobijohn]

I play about with it 3 or 4 hours a day. Shuffling here, shuffling there. Gives me something to do other than play guitar. So far my worst daily loss was only about $800 so I've been lucky I guess. I did squirrel some away in stocks that pay dividends.....just to fund my play time. It's pretty interesting reading the Asian markets early in the morning and The Motley Fool. But they don't don't seem to do much better than I do. The Asians markets usually at least tell how the day is going to go. It's kinda weird owning SOME of these stocks after being a hippie all my life....LOL

At this very moment I have 2 up and 2 down a little, so I guess it's a wash at the moment. But things seem to heat up after lunch....

A different but proven way of profiting from movement (in either direction) as well as entertaining:

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/

[mighty_duck]

What do you think of this graph? The New Cases Daily graph is increasing, but the New Deaths Daily graph is about unchanged. Has COVID become less lethal?

COVID.jpg

Kinda, but mostly no.
Three main factors behind the discrepancy:
1. Improved testing. We are finding much more of the Covid positive people than a few months ago, so the ratio of infected to dead is improving.
2. Improved treatment. Fewer people reaching serious/critical status are dying, thanks to more efficient drug use (after trial and error, some steroids have been proven to reduce the death rate).
3. Lag. It takes about 2-4 weeks from initially contracting Covid to death - so the increase we've seen in infection in the last 1-2 weeks will take another couple of weeks to affect the death rate.

[Open G]

Here is a new graph that I saw today.

Cases.jpg

[bleys21]

There was some hope by researchers that the Coronoavirus would mutate into a less deadly version, since that's what has happened with the flu and other viruses. It kinda makes sense, since if the virus kills its host, the chances of reproducing are zero, so, in theory, the less deadly versions will spread more successfully, since living hosts are better at propagating the virus.